As an independent scientist, people often ask me how I financially support my tornado modeling work. The short answer, truthfully, is I haven’t been. Hundreds of hours of coding, extensive reading and self-teaching, reaching out to subject matter experts, attending two conferences – all on my own dime. Nearly two years of full-time devotion to an unpaid project, only possible with low personal expenses and no student debt (an extraordinary privilege, I can’t thank you enough, Dad). That isn’t to say I haven’t tried to obtain funding: I have applied, unsuccessfully, for a few academic grants of varying size, as well as networked with private investors in the local entrepreneurship community. This has placed my work in an all-too-common tug-of-war between the scientific merit priorities of grant reviewers and profitability goals of investors. Faced with the prospect of choosing a side, I feel that the project’s identity could change drastically depending on who funds its next chapter.
On the one hand, grant funding is desirable because there’s no expectation of payback or profit. The vast majority of available grant funding is distributed by the federal government via its executive agencies, and I’ve looked into NSF, NOAA, DoE, and DoD funding on various occasions. Funding opportunities are routinely announced through grants.gov and appear to be open contests. However, after submitting a letter of intent prior to applying for one of these federal grants, I received a reply from a program director saying that they were not accepting new research proposals in my area. I had heard that many grant competition announcements are drafted with a predetermined recipient in mind, but it’s disheartening to run into this barrier firsthand. My lone attempt at a small non-government grant, an application to National Geographic’s explorers program, was also unsuccessful, likely due to broad competition across disciplines. I will continue applying for a range of grants, but I understand that my status as a non-meteorologist with a master’s degree outside of academia puts me at a significant disadvantage in many competitions.
Private investment doesn’t have these barriers to entry, but there are other important requirements. Investors want to assess your potential for profits, and one of the major tests is the performance of your minimum viable product, or MVP. The level of background work required for a simulation of atmospheric physics over complex terrain has delayed my MVP, which will be unveiled in a few months when the web platform is ready. But even then, this model needs years of testing before it can be profitable as a predictive tool, at least according to the business plan we devised at Startup Weekend. Even the local angel investing group requires an MVP, prior fundraising, and proof of initial revenue. In order to secure private investment, I recognize that I’ll likely have to pivot to the insurance market, using the MVP to create a long-term average risk product for tornado formation. Rather than waiting several years for the weather forecasting market to jump on board, insurance company representatives have expressed interest since the model’s inception, understanding the leg up that pre-operational analytics can provide. A hard left turn from my original goal of getting improved tornado forecasts into living rooms, but that might be the cost of doing business.
I am nearing the critical juncture. The next and final step is to develop the interface for users to interact with my already-completed algorithm. But once the MVP launches, there are numerous departure points, each with its own set of advantages and disadvantages. Beyond supporting the work, I will soon need to support myself. At the very least, the web platform, once completed, represents a portfolio of my work for the last two years, a testament to my determination and problem solving capabilities for potential employers. If a grant or investment opportunity comes through, though, the next phase of this project could take on a whole new life. For this reason, I’m not overly stressed about the funding situation of this project; rather, I’m excited to launch the MVP and see what the future brings!
Worldly Observations 