Hurricane Ida: handled it a little better

Yesterday, New Orleans and the surrounding marshland parishes of SE Louisiana were directly hit by Hurricane Ida. We all knew that this was going to be bad. Before the rain showers had coalesced into a tropical storm off the coast of Jamaica, the spaghetti models were in the most agreeance I’ve ever seen for any storm (see below, it’s impressive) that this was going to be a Category 4 or 5. The next name in line was Ida, which just sounds like the name of a notorious hurricane, certainly in comparison to more docile choices like Ingrid, Indica, or Ivanka. And it was due to strike on the 16-year anniversary of Hurricane Katrina, one of the deadliest and costliest natural disasters in U.S. history, slated to inflict its most intense wrath in many of the same places most affected by Katrina. All we could do was collectively hold our breath as Louisianans went through the seasonal ritual of boarding up windows and deciding whether or not to evacuate to higher ground.

Model runs from the GFS and ECMWF from 4 days prior to landfall are remarkably consistent in path and strength.

After Ida made landfall as a Category 4 on Sunday morning, we had to keep holding our breath as the extent of damage would not be known until the next day. Of the over 2000 residents of Grand Isle, one of Louisiana’s only recreational beach towns, only 40 resisted mandatory evacuation orders, stranded with 8 firefighters to fend for themselves. The electricity quickly went out all over the region as all sizes of transmission lines were downed in the 100+ mph sustained winds, wiping out power to 1.8 million people. But the news that managed to get out was mainly positive: the levees and pumping systems around New Orleans held the floodwaters back completely. Only one storm-related fatality was reported by Monday morning in the New Orleans area, and the Cajun Navy is out in force to assist with rescue operations. While the physical destruction of Ida was devastating to the numerous small fishing communities on the bayous in her path, New Orleans fared comparatively well thanks to the 16 billion dollar flood control investment since Katrina.

However, the prolonged power outage remains a serious issue. As of Monday night, Entergy Corporation, who has a monopoly on electricity over New Orleans and southern Louisiana, has no update as to when power will be restored, except that it “could take up to 4 days to assess the damage” before grid-scale restoration efforts even begin. The story is startling: all 8 connections to the grid were knocked out of service, leaving the New Orleans area on an island with no electricity generation. Worse yet, the company shuttered its 60-year-old natural gas plant just across the river in 2016, lobbied extensively for a subsidized replacement, then pivoted before completing construction. It’s a grave situation that has many similarities to the Texas grid failure in February, a disaster of corporate mismanagement and lax government oversight. Hopefully the 15,000+ line workers pouring in from other states can rectify the crisis in Louisiana as soon as possible.

Red is bad….all of SE Louisiana is out of power. Map engine from Entergy’s website

After seeing viral imagery of Category 4 damage and widespread power outages, I can already sense the keyboard warriors winding up their “I’d’a handled it better” grandstanding: that all power distribution should be underground everywhere, that victims shouldn’t get relief money because it was their choice to live in hurricane-prone areas, and that New Orleans should be abandoned before it sinks into the sea due to repeated storm surge flooding. I would argue, rather, that Hurricane Ida is a strong example that New Orleans can continue to survive and prosper with proper, government-initiated preparations. The levee system, much maligned after Katrina, survived a similar threat from Ida with no detected breaches. Wind-resistant construction has been a key requirement of the building code since the 1990s, so structures that were built back after Katrina stood up valiantly to the 100+ mph winds of Ida. The federal flood insurance program is tightening to reward flood-resilient architecture, no longer just a bailout for badly-built beach houses. The electrical grid could be remade to withstand catastrophes like this with some thoughtful civic design, as any combination of maintaining backup generation capacity or over-engineering a main grid connection could have greatly lessened this disaster. A little extra investment in rebuilding stronger can preserve the beautiful bayous of southern Louisiana along with the vibrant cultural epicenter that is New Orleans, one of my favorite cities in the entire world.

Olympics Appreciation Post

Rising above the chaos of the world this summer, the Tokyo Olympics have gone off without a hitch, mostly. Leading up to the games, the prospect of hosting this Olympics was widely criticized, maligned, doubted; not least because we’re still in the throes of a global pandemic. It’s an expensive event, with a price tag of around 20 billion dollars, footed by a Japanese population of whom around 80% oppose the games continuing under these conditions. There are no fans in the stands, as the events take place in a relative bubble, limiting cultural exchange as well as tourist economic benefit. There was a fear that the Olympic “bubble” would showcase the opportunity gap for vaccinations between rich and poor countries – though that gap is always present in participation. Recent scandals, including the Russian doping penalties and the U.S. Gymnastics/Larry Nassar sexual assault case, cast a lingering shadow on the sports that they affect. World politics seem to be growing more nationalistic, distrusting, negative. Perhaps that’s why we need the Olympics more than ever now: it’s a show of positivity, strength, and togetherness in the face of lockdowns, hardship, and divisiveness.

I love the Olympics for the moments of greatness, perseverance, and world unity. And there has been no shortage of spectacular moments through the first week plus. Two thousand glowing drones forming into a mesmerizing globe during the opening ceremony. Hidilyn Diaz lifting concrete blocks and water jugs on the way to winning the first ever gold medal for the Philippines. Pure joyous surprise for Kristian Blummenfelt as he won a wild men’s triathlon by a wide margin. A spectacular all-around performance for Hmong-American gymnast Suni Lee. Sifan Hassan falling to the track with a lap to go then coming back to win her heat in the 1500-meter run. Caeleb Dressel crying wordless tears of joy over a videocall with his wife and mother after winning his first of several gold medals in swimming. A world record triple jump by nearly seven inches for Yulimar Rojas. A shared gold medal in men’s high jump. An incredible world record in the 400-meter hurdles for Karsten Warholm. Many of these stellar achievements were followed by emotional celebrations, with competitors from different countries embracing and cheering for one another. It’s a reminder that despite differences in politics, race, nationality, and lived experience, we are united by humanity. For that reason alone, I believe it’s worth investing in the continuation of the Olympic tradition for years to come!