Hurricane Ian: a Category 4 Direct Hit

Hurricanes are, in my opinion, the most terrifying type of weather phenomenon, and Hurricane Ian is a textbook reason why. While the most monstrous tornadoes are a mile or two wide and churn along for about an hour, Ian’s severe bands spanned a nearly 300 mile diameter and exposed much of its path to sustained winds equivalent to a EF2-EF3 tornado. Damage was exacerbated by flooding; some areas were deluged by over a foot of rain in a single day, and coastal areas below the storm surge height (up to 10 feet) were inundated by seawater. It’s a situation of unavoidable devastation – even though we knew that Ian would hit the Gulf Coast nearly a week in advance, how do you prepare a million people or more for a day of 100+ mph sustained winds and over a foot of rain?

I write about hurricanes often, but I don’t want to understate the gravity of this disaster. This hurricane is among the worst to hit the U.S. in my living memory, joining Maria and Katrina in the total destruction category. Ian was comparable to the worst-case scenario that forecasters were expecting for Hurricane Irma in 2017, landfalling as a Category 4 near Fort Myers and leaving a broad swath of destruction across the state. Ian already compares to the worst storms in Florida’s history, according to the infographic below. A 500-year wind event for Florida’s southwest coast, a 1000-year rain event for the Orlando area (though I generally believe rain risk estimates need updating). Thousands of homes flooded, over 2 million residents without power, a death toll in the double digits and climbing… a tragic and devastating event.

But hurricanes are a fact of life in Florida. Catastrophic storms will continue to hit Florida, likely with increasing frequency as the planet warms. And people will continue to live there; with the exception of a few days during hurricane season, the Sunshine State has some of the best weather in all of America, not to mention the beautiful beaches and endless tourist attractions. Florida will surely build back, hopefully with an eye on resilience. On that note, what can actually be done to prepare for a disaster scenario like this?

• Assessing risk for flooding: there are numerous resources available, including the National Flood Hazard Layer from FEMA, for mapping floodplains and storm surge areas. Moreover, versions of these maps are requestable public records from every municipality, and informed residents can know roughly what volume of rain or height of storm surge will overtop any flood barriers and cause damage to their homes or yards.
• Preparing for an evacuation: Piggybacking on the flood hazard data, emergency managers have compiled an excellent map interface that gives neighborhood-specific evacuation information. Officials knocked on doors and issued mandatory evacuations for about 300,000 people of highest risk, but some people unfortunately resist these mandates.
• Strengthening building codes: Hurricane clips and other wind resistant architecture have been required in Florida since Andrew in 1992, but Houston meteorologist Eric Berger said this would have been a “nightmare storm” for less-regulated coastal Texas. It is tragic to see mobile home parks getting swept away, and I wish a regulatory approach could move those developments to safer ground away from storm surge areas.
• Investing in public infrastructure: Florida’s power outage could have been a lot worse if not for a concerted effort since 2004 to re-route electrical lines underground. But more flood control infrastructure like seawalls and salt barriers could better protect developments on both beachfronts (like Fort Myers Beach and Captiva Island) and intracoastal waterways (like the entirety of Cape Coral).
• Mobilizing disaster response: Finally, when the hurricane inevitably hits, first responders and debris-moving equipment need to be ready to move. Shelters opened to accept thousands, serving hot meals and providing basic necessities and temporary lodging. Florida appears to have done an exceptional job with this, with a detailed plan disseminated from the state level and supported by numerous public and private organizations. If only all counties followed it…
• Rebuilding with all hands on deck: Floridians will be rebuilding for a long time, and the initial estimate that only ~20% of those affected had flood insurance might make rebuilding efforts even messier. I hope that FEMA has the breadth and staying power to assist those in need and has learned from disasters like the Joplin tornado (where numerous nefarious contractors swarmed to grift victims dependent on the federal aid). And I hope that communities can come together to rebuild in a way that steels Florida for the next one.

Another Devastating Hurricane in Puerto Rico

Five years after Hurricane Maria wreaked devastation on Puerto Rico, another tragedy struck the island yesterday in the form of Hurricane Fiona. Maria was a horrendous Category 5 hurricane that came on the heels of hurricanes Harvey and Irma, and perhaps due to disaster fatigue, many people only remember it for that odd moment when then-president Trump distributed paper towels like he was playing Pop-a-Shot. But it was absolutely terrible: over 3,000 people died, much of the island’s rich ecology was flattened, and the electrical infrastructure was knocked out for weeks to months in many locations. Since then, PREPA (Puerto Rico’s version of ERCOT) has overseen the privatization of the grid by a single Canadian/American company, Luma, which has not exactly fulfilled its promises of resilience or modernization. Moreover, a majority of the recovery money distributed by FEMA and others has not reached the people of Puerto Rico, making the island particularly vulnerable to future catastrophes.

Enter Fiona: it was a relatively mild tropical storm until it strengthened to a Category 1 hurricane shortly before landfall. Comparing most closely to Hurricane Florence, at least in my recent memory, the storm was slowed as it crossed over land, its heaviest wind and rain bands pounding the south side of the island. Unfortunately, the power plants and transformers at the heart of the grid are all on the south side of the island, and they were completely knocked out early in Fiona’s transit. Whether it’s a failure of temporary infrastructure or just poor planning, the entire island is suffering a prolonged blackout, which will undoubtedly lead to preventable deaths outside the worst of the hurricane’s path. Within the path, however, this is a reminder that even Category 1 hurricanes are worth taking seriously for their potential for devastating human impacts.

Hurricane Fiona approaching Puerto Rico on Sunday. (Image Credit: NOAA/RAMMB at Colorado State University)

I feel terribly for Puerto Rico – while the hurricane threat will never go away, these people have had to deal with so much hardship, without a real political recourse to improve their situation. I find it shameful that Puerto Rico is treated like a second-class part of the United States, not least because the Puerto Ricans I have met throughout my life are universally wonderful and compassionate humans. For them, and for everyone on the island going through this disaster, I hope that this round’s recovery is adequately funded and more sustainably executed.