After weeks of ominous Russian military buildup, today unfolded as a nightmare scenario in Ukraine, the likes of which we haven’t seen in Europe since WWII. My heart goes out for the Ukrainian people, many of whom have feared such an invasion for years but dismissed its imminence even as citizens of other countries evacuated last week. I didn’t expect a full-scale invasion either, placing misguided faith in Vladimir Putin’s words about a “peacekeeping force” for the Russian-speaking oblasts of Luhansk and Donetsk, maybe even Kharkiv. Evidently, the Ukrainian military was planning for that scenario as well, stationing the majority of their forces in eastern Ukraine to defend a line near Kharkiv while leaving the back door open for a ground invasion of Kyiv. Now, the entire country is under attack from air, land, and sea, as the following places were bombed during just the first day:
It can be hard to understand or fathom what is going on right now. Trying to see a balanced picture, I have read international news outlets and now follow a number of Ukrainian reporters on Twitter. Ukrainians generally feel abandoned by the West, cultivating a hope for democratic acceptance into European treaties but ultimately being used as a buffer against Russian aggression. Nevertheless, the Ukrainian people are determined to fight – conscripted even, as Ukrainian men aged 18-60 are forbidden from leaving the country under the declared martial law. Russians are generally against the invasion as well, knowing that protracted conflict will lead to Russian deaths and economic discomfort. One aspect that gives me hope is that many Russian officials are uniting to condemn the war, and I retain a small amount of hope that Putin’s reckless actions can somehow be curtailed.
Living in a post-Cold War era, a territorial invasion like this seemed like an improbable outcome – after all, the power players in this ‘new world order’ appeared content to not disrupt the economic prosperity that comes along with peace. It was naïve to think that this would continue without any geopolitical reshuffling, that sanctions and penalties would be a suitable deterrent to malevolently ambitious regimes. In hindsight, we should not have allowed Russia and China to drift closer together, and we should have projected a firmer stance against the autocrats that threaten world peace (or at the very least, not had a former president praise these men for being ‘strong, savvy leaders’). This is a crucial moment for the United States and our European allies, whether we can come together as leaders in peacekeeping and restore the legitimacy of international law, even in this climate with limited appetite for sending soldiers into active combat halfway around the world. I can’t predict how the coming weeks will play out, but today marks the beginning of a darker era for diplomacy.
Worldly Observations 